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2019 Open Class and 18 Meter Class Nationals - Days 7 8 cirrus blow off analysis by WX

The cirrus blowoff at Hobbs on DAY 7 and DAY 8 encouraged me to investigate how the HRRR model forecasts the cloud cover. Here's a pdf discussing this along with videos of how the model forecasted the thunderstorms and Total Cloud Cover:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/djcw4pfu9nk6nvv/HRRR_Model_TotalCloudCover_and_Thunderstorms.pdf?raw=1

For easy reference here's the GOES-16 sat imagery videos

DAY 7
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2rrdqjvfryhvkjo/Hobbs_DAY7_20190626_GOES-16_Radar.mp4?raw=1

DAY 8
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0vxeixzdorq6dvq/Hobbs_DAY8_20190627_GOES-16.mp4?raw=1

CONCLUSIONS

Yes, it did forecast the cirrus blowoff..  but was too slow in moving toward Hobbs. So, I wouldn't rely on it for tasking with any detailed planning. It just indicates a higher risk day for completing a task.

Walt Rogers WX

Posted: 7/2/2019


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