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Region 2 North - Labor Day Weather

Synoptics
 
Strong high ridging to our south and last remnants of Harvey/Trough departing to the east over Maine.    Generally dry, warm air in place.    
 
Instability
 
Forecast BL is around 3,500 at launch time developing to a maximum of about 5,500.   Figure 5,000 as a good average during the task window.    Moderate instability coupled with strong winds in the boundary layer means sheared, torn up thermals.
 
Clouds
 
Models in some disagreement on dewpoints and thus clouds.   Best guess would be scattered to few Cu at around 5,000 to 5,500 feet.    
 
Winds
 
Relatively strong SWerly flow at 10kts down low increasing to the upper teens at the top of the boundary layer.   Average is about 15-17kts in the working band.   Surface winds should be SW at about 10 but with gusts to near 20.   

 

Posted: 9/4/2017


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