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Club Class National - Thursday Weather - QV P3


Welcome to April in June.  Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and a ridge of high pressure to the West will maintain a strong NW flow of very dry air throughout the day.
The NAM boundary layer is forecast to be about 8,000 ft msl and quite unstable, so climbs in the 6 - 8 kt range can be expected.  Average climb for the day could be as high as 5 kt.  These numbers do not take into account the likely significant windshear problems!
THE HRRR model is forecasting widespread wave which as usual, can help or hinder but which is sure to be a factor.
Even with the very dry air the BL is expected to be deep enough to produce cu at about 7,500 ft msl.  Later in the day it is possible that there will be some spreadout.  The NWS does not share tis view and is calling for only a few scattered cu.
Strong NW winds all day will be an issue.  At 2:00 PM wind at the top of the BL is forecast to be 50 kts, deceasing to 40 kts by late afternoon.  If correct, this will make to difficult thermalling and strong surface gusts.  The BLIPMAP B/S numbers are less than four over the contest are, normally an indication of significant difficulty in thermalling.  The KSWF TAF is calling for 29022G31 by mid-morning.
Strong winds and possible significant wave-induced turbulence aloft.
I agree with Richard.    Note that wind issues will likely include lots of moderate to maybe extreme turbulence behind the Catskills;  with convection up to 8000 the winds aloft will mix down and reinforce the already strong winds near the surface.   It's already gusting into the mid-20s at various reporting stations, so I can't see any reason why gusts up into the 30s won't happen.   
- P3

Posted: 6/9/2016


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