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Region 2 North - Friday Weather Forecast

Option 1:   Damned if I know.

Option 2:    Ill-defined frontal boundary waffling back and forth over our area.   Widely divergent numbers between the NAM and RUC.   RUC soundings say this might be a fantastic day.   NAM says weak and OD.    I'm going with the NAM.    
Best guess is that we get convective Cu despite the high overcast by late morning.  Cu eventually get to 4,000 and possibly 5,000 feet.   After that, it's just a question of when things blow up.    National Weather Service Albany thinks the worst stuff will form pretty far West of us until evening.   
Winds aloft mostly south in our area, though forecast stations only 50 miles to our North calling for NW.     Figure on 10-15kts from the S/SW on average.  
Confidence level:  Low
Tasking:    I think we should actually account for both possibilities.   If it breaks our way,   a 2 or 2.5 our AAT.     If it doesn't, a dump task of 1.5 hours or so.    
I will plan to watch the radar and satellite very carefully (I have an experienced back seater) and make sure that if we see widespread heavy weather that we get them back in the box.    Also suggest that Safety Finish be in the bag of tricks for today;   early T-storms should be of the pop-up variety.

Posted: 6/12/2015


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