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Region 2 North - Saturday Weather

Synoptics
 
Weak high pressure barely holding on in New York State.    Large area of low pressure combining the remnants of Harvey and a Midwestern Trough approaching from the west.    Extensive cirrus already covers most of the area.    
 
Instability
 
Forecast BL is around 2,500 at launch time developing to a maximum of about 3,500.   Instability is marginal and 100%  dependent on whether we have some thinner bands of cirrus to get some heating.   Temps need to reach the upper 60s, which looks unlikely.
 
Clouds
 
Thin cirrus thickening and building during the course of the day.   Expect 100% cloud cover by mid-afternoon.   Dry surface air rules out anything other than a few very isolated Cu.    
 
Winds
 
Light ESE winds less than 10kts. 

Posted: 9/2/2017


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