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Club Class National - Friday Weather

Synoptics
 
Large building area of high pressure will return more summer-like wx to the area for the weekend and should give us excellent soaring.
 
Instability
 
Forecast BL is over 7,000 ft and at least for as long as we get mostly sunny conditions, should give climbs in the 4 - 6 kt range to cloudbase with task averages about 4 kts.  Cloud cover will interact strongly with the BL instability today - see below.
 
Clouds
 
The mid and high level clouds in place this morning should move out by mid-morning to be followed by cu which should quickly rise to about 6,500 ft ms and higher in the mountains and as the afternoon wears on.   There is only a weak inversion in place at about 12,000 ft so it is possible that some clouds could grow to above the forecast 12 kft freezing level and produce the odd shower.  A more significant cloud issue is the chance of localized spreadout at cloudbase by mid-late afternoon.  If this happens it will reduce climb rates. 
 
Winds
 
Light NE flow not expected to get much over 10 kts from the surface to cloudbase unless we do see towering cu in which case some mixing down of the 20 25 kts North winds ate 12,000 ft could be a factor.

Posted: 6/17/2016


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