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Club Class National - Wednesday Weather

Synoptics

High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes slides to the northeast during the day.  A warm front draped from Ohio to Virginia advances slows behind the departing high.    

Instability

Boundary layer slightly better than yesterday, averaging 6,000-7,000 across the task area.  With forecast heating (see “clouds”) expect 3-5kts to 5,000 rising to 6,000 and better.  

Clouds

Dewpoints have risen somewhat but are still low at 50-53 degrees.   This should give us some Cu at over 6,000 feet.  The real cloud question is cirrus associated with the warm front.  The HRRR (usually super reliable) has them breaking up as they run into the back of the high.  Aviation forecasts calling for few/scattered to the northeast and broken to the southwest.   We’ll need to keep an eye on the cirrus, as the good soaring is predicated on them remaining scattered to broken.

Winds

Winds generally westerly at the surface backing to southwest as the day goes on and less than 10kts.  Northwesterly flow above about 6,000 feet and less than 15kts. 

Cautions

Watch the cirrus.

 

P3, 2016-06-15 1115Z

Posted: 6/15/2016


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