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Club Class National - Monday Weather

Synoptics

Very similar setup to yesterday but with some twists.  The large low pressure system sits over eastern Canada while a high tries (and fails) to build in from the Great Lakes.   Slightly weaker pressure gradient means slightly lower winds than yesterday.  

Instability

The boundary layer is not especially deep today despite the NW flow and synoptic conditions.   Models agree on a fairly strong inversion at about 4500 feet.   With reasonable heating (see “clouds”) and reinforcement from orographic lift, can expect solid climbs to 4500-5000 over the hills.  Lower/weaker in the flatlands.   Buoyancy/sheer ratios are 4/5, which is better than yesterday.

Clouds

Models and aviation forecasts agree on a lot of mid-level/high-level clouds, which is corroborated by the current satellite views.   The real question is Cu.   Models are all over the map with surface dewpoints.   The NAM suggests extensive Cu at around 4000 – 4500 feet.   The RAP suggests blue as do some of the general forecasts.

Winds

Winds continue NWerly (310-320) from about 15kts near the surface and around 20-25kts near the top of the boundary layer.  Surface gusts continue up into the 20-25kts range.  Generally less as you go SW from Wurtsboro.   Models and forecasters disagree on whether this holds throughout the day.   Aviation forecasts and weather service suggests winds slackening by about 5kts across the board as the afternoon wears on.  The NAM suggests strong all day. 

Cautions

Continued rough conditions, though less so than yesterday and Thursday.   Lack of clarity on wind strength over the course of the day means ridge may soften.  Overall confidence in details of forecast is low.

-P3

Posted: 6/13/2016


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