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Club Class National - Sunday Weather

Synoptics

Another day more typical of mid-May rather than mid-June.   Cold front passed through our area after sunrise - a few hours behind earlier model forecasts.   Intense low pressure moving off Maine toward Canadian Maritimes with a high building in over Michigan results in a very tight pressure gradient over our contest area.

Instability

Air is generally unstable with BL heights of around 5,000 to 6,000 trending lower to the north and higher to the south.    The Dr. Jack Buoyancy/Sheer Ratio is a challenging 3-4 over our area. Obvious signs of wave in the models, with associated benefits and challenges.     

Clouds

Similar to the instability forecast, cloudbase forecasts range from 4,500 to 6,000 again trending lower to the north and higher to the south.   The HRRR model brings 100% cloud cover as far south as the high peaks of the Catskills and has it completely blue in our area.  NAM has cumulus clouds extending through the entire task area and also hints at OD very close to Wurtsboro. 

Winds

Strong NW winds from the surface to the stratosphere.    Surface winds generally 300 (+/- 10 degrees) in the 15kts-20kts.    Higher from Wurtsboro and north in our task area.  Lower in the southern part of the task area.   Winds 3,000 generally 310 at 25-30kts.  Winds at 6,000 generally 310 at 35-40kts.    With convection and these winds aloft, all forecasts bring gusts from 25kts up to the 30kts into our area.  Again, worse north and better south.

Cautions

Similar to the first practice day (Thursday), a rough and tumble sort of day.    Expect challenging takeoffs and landings, chopped up thermals,  and tooth-rattling ridge.  

P3, 2016-06-12 1200Z

Posted: 6/12/2016


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