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Sports Class Nationals - Day 6 Weather

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY OCCUR THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND RUC/HRRR ARE CERTAINLY MORE BULLISH ON
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH TAF SITES. WHILE
THIS PROBABILITY IS LOW...FELT IT WAS BEST TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDER IN THE VICINITY FROM 2-4Z. FUTURE TAFS MAY NEED TO
AMEND TIMING OR REMOVE IT ALTOGETHER BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.

 

 

TRIGGER:

 

TEMP: 87F      TIME: 11AM    FORECAST HIGH:  98-100

 

LIFT:

 

STRENGTH: 350 FPM      HEIGHT: CLOUDBASE 6000 AT LAUNCH, 7000+ LATER

 

TAF:

 

KDFW 231126Z 2312/2418 06008KT P6SM SKC
  FM240100 08005KT P6SM VCTS SCT060CB
  FM240300 VRB03KT P6SM FEW060 BKN150

 

COMMENTS:

 

Mostly sunny, with a high near 98. Heat index values as high as 101. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT AROUND 10 KNOTS. NO OVERDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.  20% CHANCE OF STORMS TONIGHT BUT DON’T EXPECT ANYTHING TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE SOARING DAY ENDS. CHECK FORECASTS AGAIN AFTER LANDING TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO DERIG. STORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST

Posted: 7/23/2014


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