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Sports Class Nationals - Day 1 Weather

Good morning from the Weather Man. Here is my analysis for today.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 

THE COLD FRONT THAT BEGAN TO SLIDE INTO OUR AREA LATE YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE DFW METRO TAF SITES AS OF 12Z THIS
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT KACT AS WELL DUE TO A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH...BUT FROPA SHOULD OCCUR THERE WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KTS TODAY BUT SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 8 KTS BY MID MORNING.
 
LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR KACT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. BY 15Z...ALL AREA TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
QUIET WEATHER. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION
PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD...CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIES JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
 

 

TRIGGER:

 

TEMP: 86F TIME: 2:00 FORECAST HIGH: 90 (NWS), 92 (Weather Channel)

 

LIFT:

 

STRENGTH: 300fpm       HEIGHT: 5500   CLOUDS: UNLIKELY

 

TAF:

 KDFW 151126Z 1512/1618 04011KT P6SM BKN250
  FM161500 12008KT P6SM BKN250

COMMENTS: NWS FORECAST: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. DEW POINT DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROBABLY PREVENT CU FORMATION. BIG CHALLENGE IS GOING TO BE CIRRUS FORMATION. NAM AND RAP ON DR.JACK/XCSKIES DOES NOT SEEM TO BE EXPECTING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND ARE SHOWING HIGH 80’S TEMPERATURE AT 1 PM. NWS HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH 50% CLOUD COVER AND A SLOWER RAMP UP TO TEMPERATURES. MY TRIGGER ESTIMATION IS BASED ON NWS. DR.JACK/XCSKIES ALSO SHOW HIGHER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY ALTHOUGH ABOUT THE SAME THERMAL HEIGHT AS I FOUND WITH A 92 DEGREE HIGH.

 

RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WAS BETWEEN .1” AND .25” HERE AND BELOW .1” SOUTH OF HILLSBORO.  EAST PART OF THE TASK AREA RECEIVED MORE THAN .25”

 

SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND A HOLE IN THE CIRRUS OPENING UP IN NORTHERN TEXAS. I THINK AS LONG AS WE GET GOOD SUNSHINE WE SHOULD HAVE A SOARABLE DAY.

Posted: 7/15/2014


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